In other words, they always believe that there is progress and good news

In other words, they always believe that there is progress and good news, and would believe it no matter what. (This is why I consider optimism to be a species of mental illness.) Once in a great while, there actually is a little good news (it was bound to happen sooner or later), and from their braying about it you’d think these people possessed oracular powers.

A large part of the decline seems to be the changed situation in Anbar, where “violent deaths” declined 82%. Assuming that all of these figures are basically accurate (that’s a big assumption), that means that much of the “progress” (a.k.a., getting back to where we already were) being touted derived from the Awakening in Anbar, which, as we have had to say over and over, was incidental to and not part of the “surge.” Good news? Certainly. A vindication of the “surge”? Not nearly so much as crowing jingoes would have you think. The “surge” has had some modest and perforce temporary success, but it has yielded no political results and cannot conjure up a professional Iraqi police force or independently effective Iraqi Army by sheer willpower.

As we know, the police force is a shambles, and the army remains still largely inadequate to the task of providing security on its own. The elements needed for long-term stability and victory, such as it is, are not present, and there is little that has happened in the last ten months has made them more likely in the coming year. The “surge” was intended to “buy time,” and so it has bought a little–only in this very narrow sense can it be declared successful. As most of UGGS Roxy tall already know, and all of UGGS Roxy tall should know, that time bought with Bailey Button UGGsn lives will be frittered away to no good purpose by the different factions. Of course, if Turkey invades Kurdistan, all bets are off anyway.